America's 'incredible period' is coming to an end: Warren Buffett

America’s ‘incredible period’ is coming to an end: Warren Buffett

Business

America’s ‘incredible period’ is coming to an end: Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett, known for his optimistic outlook on the American economy, has recently expressed a more pessimistic view. He believes that the country’s “incredible period” of economic growth is coming to an end, leaving some investors feeling nervous. However, there are steps that investors can take to prepare themselves for the changing economic landscape.

At Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting on Saturday, the renowned investor Warren Buffett warned that the United States’ “incredible period” of economic prosperity is drawing to a close. Buffett went on to reveal that even his own company is not immune to the downturn, as he expects the majority of their businesses to report lower earnings this year than they did the previous year.

America's 'incredible period' is coming to an end: Warren Buffett

Buffett’s recent cautionary comments about the U.S. economy may come as a surprise given his typically bullish outlook, but concerns over persistently high inflation, rising interest rates, and ongoing banking issues have led him to temper his optimism. His partner, Charlie Munger, shares these concerns and predicts lower investment returns in the future. In line with this sentiment, Berkshire Hathaway sold off $10.4 billion in equities in the first quarter of 2023 and increased its cash holdings to $130.6 billion. While investors should take heed of these warnings, completely abandoning the market may not be the best approach. Diversifying a portfolio with recession-resistant assets and international stocks can help mitigate potential downward pressures.

To protect a portfolio from the effects of a recession, it can be wise to invest in service sectors that are less affected by economic downturns. One such sector is businesses that are backed by hard assets that are resistant to inflation. Caretrust REIT (CTRE) is an example of such a company. It owns and manages healthcare properties throughout the US, including over 21,795 hospital beds spread across 23 states and 204 properties. This real estate investment trust could be considered a loose proxy for the private healthcare industry in America. With a 5.7% dividend yield, CTRE could be a suitable anchor for a portfolio during a recession.

Rewritten: As the likelihood of a US recession in 2023 continues to grow, with odds as high as 65%, many investors are seeking ways to protect their wealth. While developed markets such as Britain, France, New Zealand, and Canada are highly vulnerable, developing markets are far less so. In fact, according to a recent Bloomberg survey of economists, India’s odds of a recession are at 0%.

Investing in foreign stocks could be an effective way to safeguard a portfolio. For example, India’s largest private bank, HDFC Bank, is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker HDB. This stock has delivered a total return of over 4,300% since it was listed in 2001 and fared better than most American banks during the 2008 financial crisis.

Investors have several other options beyond India. They can also consider betting on Chinese, Singaporean, and Indonesian stocks via ETFs or American Depositary Receipts. By diversifying into international stocks, investors can help reduce their exposure to a potential recession in the US and other developed markets.

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