Venezuela’s opposition struggles to gain recognition for its claimed victory in the presidential election, as international attention shifts and military leaders continue to back President Nicolas Maduro.
Bollywood Fever: Venezuela’s opposition coalition continues to push for acknowledgment of its claimed victory in last month’s presidential election. However, with global attention increasingly diverted, the opposition’s options are becoming more limited, according to opposition sources and analysts.
The electoral authorities declared President Nicolas Maduro the winner of the July 28 contest, securing a third term. In contrast, tallies collected by the opposition suggest that opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez emerged victorious.
Accusing Maduro of electoral fraud, protesters took to the streets, leading to clashes labeled as “fascist violence” by the government. These protests have resulted in 23 deaths and approximately 2,400 arrests.
This scenario is not new for Venezuela, where similar protests, international sanctions, and an opposition-led interim presidency recognized by Western countries have all previously failed to unseat Maduro. With military leaders pledging their loyalty to him, the opposition’s paths forward appear increasingly constrained.
Currently, the opposition is concentrating on demanding the publication of the full voting tallies, as stated by four anonymous opposition sources. These sources also indicated that the opposition is open to negotiations with the ruling party, hoping that international pressure might eventually yield results.
Gonzalez, along with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who led his campaign, has urged supporters to maintain the protests. Machado has even suggested offering incentives to members of the ruling party to encourage them to relinquish power.
Despite these efforts, the government has so far refused to engage in talks, citing internal divisions within the ruling party. “There are groups within the ruling party willing to negotiate, while others are entrenched and willing to do anything,” Machado told journalists this week.
According to tallies in the opposition’s possession, which have been posted online, Gonzalez received around 7 million votes, more than double Maduro’s 3.3 million. These figures align with independent exit polling.
However, the national electoral council has not published the full tallies and maintains that Maduro won with approximately 51% of the vote. The council’s website has been inaccessible since the early hours of July 29.
Venezuela’s top court, which the opposition considers an extension of the ruling party, claims it is still verifying results, stating that the opposition has not provided sufficient evidence of its tallies. Meanwhile, the government is reportedly still reviewing its own calculations regarding the opposition’s votes.
“A dialogue would need to acknowledge an electoral process where the opposition was victorious,” said Maria Isabel Puerta, a political science professor at Florida’s Valencia College. She warned that international attention might be drawn away from Venezuela due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
One opposition source expressed confidence that Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico could exert pressure on Maduro, but emphasized that “internal pressure must not cease.” The United States, Argentina, and Chile have repeatedly called for the government to publish the full tallies, while Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico—countries traditionally more aligned with Maduro—are working to facilitate talks between Maduro and Gonzalez.
Western nations, wary of past diplomatic failures, have shown little inclination to quickly impose tougher measures, such as new sanctions, in response to the ongoing dispute. In contrast, Russia, China, and other nations have congratulated Maduro on his victory.
“I believe that keeping communication channels open with Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia is a positive sign,” Machado said. “We hope to see what happens this week, which I think is crucial.”
Machado has ruled out the possibility of repeating the election, according to diplomatic sources. When asked if he would engage in talks with Machado, Maduro responded that she should first face justice for her alleged crimes.
The attorney general’s office announced last week that it is launching a criminal investigation against opposition leaders, including Machado, for inciting police and military officials to break the law, conspiracy, and other charges.
“The opposition evidently won, but it lacks the power to make its victory count,” said Ricardo Rios, director of the Caracas consulting firm Poder y Estrategia. “The government lost and is trying to forcefully impose itself, which it can achieve, but at a high cost.” He added that international isolation could further damage Venezuela’s already weak investment climate, while governing through repression could increase instability.
In the meantime, protests continue, although with reduced attendance, which advocates attribute to fears of arrest. Both Machado and Gonzalez have called for more marches on Saturday.
When asked how long the opposition could sustain its campaign over the election results, Machado responded, “Nobody knows.”
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